Vice President, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Risks

The Vice President, Macroeconomics and Quantitative Risk is responsible for advancing and embedding an understanding of the macroeconomic environment, its implications for the Kaiser Permanente enterprise, and contemporary approaches to quantitative risk modeling into strategic, financial, and operational decision-making through risk analytics, scenario development, and predictive-model performance monitoring. This leader also designs and operationalizes scenario analysis and risk management tools-such as executive dashboards, key risk indicators (KRIs), and scenario frameworks-to improve risk identification, measurement, prioritization, and mitigation.

A core expectation of the role is the ability to monitor and develop macroeconomic forecasts (including representing KP in the economist and analyst community, and in external forums), translate external conditions into consistent enterprise scenarios, and evaluate the performance of predictive models through actual-versus-expected analytics, benchmarking, and documented model limitations. As model development grows to include LLM capabilities it is expected that this individual will help to support responsible use of AI for KP-developed and third-party models.

• 1) Macroeconomic Monitoring, Analysis, Forecasting & Scenario Development
• Establish a disciplined approach for ongoing economic and industry data identification, monitoring, and interpretation to support macroeconomic insight development, risk sensing, and strategic risk discussions.
• Understand external data sources and analyses to support macroeconomic insight development, including building relationships with external economists and analysts and representing KP in external forums.
• Develop and maintain macroeconomic scenarios used consistently across the enterprise for modeling potential risk impacts; continuously refine assumptions based on external changes (e.g., inflation, employment recession probability, trade/tariff impacts, supply chain disruption).
• Translate macro scenarios into implications for enterprise objectives (e.g., sustainable growth, resiliency, capacity to invest) and align scenario outputs to decision points and leadership communications.
• 2) Internal and External Economic Thought Leadership and Community Development
• Integrate KPs views of industry trends, KPs enterprise strategy, public policy priorities, and forces in the broader macroeconomy.
• Serve as a thought partner to executives across the KP enterprise regarding economic forces and risks, and the implications for the health care industry and KP specifically; publish points of view internally and externally.
• Build and maintain relationships with external analysts and economists; work with leaders across the enterprise to shape and commission high-quality external economic research in support of KPs mission and strategy.
• Cultivate trusted relationships that enable constructive challenge, alignment on priorities, and practical execution plans, particularly for scenario development, planning, model quality, and prediction capabilities.
• 3) Planning, Transaction, and Enterprise Risk Management support
• Lead priority projects and workstreams that advance a multi-year ERM roadmap and integrate economic scenario development and measurement of impacts into planning, finance, and operational rhythms (e.g., strategic planning, portfolio decisions, enterprise priorities).
• Mature the enterprise risk profile by distilling complex quantitative risk signals into clear executive insights and actionable recommendations.
• Strengthen enterprise-wide risk identification and prioritization by expanding quantitative approaches to risk appetite, monitoring, and risk-based decision support.
• 4) Predictive Analytics, Model Evaluation & Actual-vs-Expected (A/E) Performance
• Design and oversee predictive analytics used in ERM (risk scoring, risk trends, early warning indicators), including scenario-based forecasting and predictive modeling capabilities.
• Establish model performance monitoring and actual-versus-expected analytics (e.g., back-testing, outcome comparisons, benchmarking), identifying drift, bias, instability, or breakdown conditions, document findings, and improvement actions.
• Evaluate conceptual soundness (assumptions, inputs, performance metrics) and propose risk mitigations for complex/nonlinear models where transparency is limited.
• Build and/or commission benchmark approaches to validate or challenge outputs of forecasting/scenario models used by business partners, based on a prioritized analysis of model risk.
• 5) Risk Measurement, KRIs, Dashboards & Reporting
• Design and implement executive dashboards that provide visibility into enterprise risk exposure, mitigation progress, and KRI performance, including targets and actuals over an aligned planning horizon.
• Support quantification and prioritization through consistent risk measurement, including risk appetite ranges, thresholds/tolerances, and trend indicators that can be used across functions.
• Drive issue aggregation and reporting practices that improve comparability and enterprise-level clarity on risk status and remediation progress.
• 6) Governance, Controls & Model Risk Discipline
• Partner with finance, risk, and operational leaders to ensure models and analytics are used appropriately for their intended purpose and that limitations are clearly understood by stakeholders. Align on methodology for requiring / recommending and monitoring improvements, subject to oversight by Finance and Risk leadership.
• Build fit-for-purpose governance and controls for quantitative ERM assets (inventory, standards, documentation, validation approach, monitoring cadence), aligned to recognized model risk management expectations (development, implementation, use, validation, and governance).
• Promote a constructive risk culture by improving transparency, decision support, and cross-functional visibility into systemic risk patterns and root causes that affect timely decisions.